2022 is about to “close”, what kind of “annual answer sheet” will be delivered by China’s foreign trade?
On the one hand, the total value of imports and exports in the first 11 months of steady growth at the same time, foreign trade month-on-month growth rate from July month by month decline; On the other hand, in order to grab more orders, from the eastern coastal economic provinces to the central and western regions, many governments have organized foreign trade enterprises to fly abroad to develop markets.
China Center for International Economic Exchanges Vice President, former Vice Minister of Commerce Wei Jianguo said in an exclusive interview with the surging news reporter, is expected throughout this year, China’s overall trade import and export will remain healthy and stable development, exports will still achieve double-digit growth.
However, Wei Jianguo pointed out that the decline in the growth rate of a single month is still within the stable range, and the decline is “temporary, understandable”, “unnecessary panic, can not say that the decline in the growth rate of a single month to prove that the future of foreign trade is bleak, foreign trade as a whole is still in a healthy and stable range of operation. ”
For next year’s trade situation, Wei said that the situation next year is serious, domestic foreign trade enterprises still have to overcome the impact caused by the domestic epidemic, the delayed time to grab back, which is the key. He also stressed that after the epidemic, the global manufacturing industry, capital, technology and talent will accelerate the transfer to China, we must be prepared, the more prepared the provinces, the more opportunities to seize.
When it comes to the current action of many local groups to seize orders, Wei described it as “innovation in the history of foreign trade”, at the same time, it is the implementation of the December 6 Central Political Bureau meeting proposed “cadres dare to do, local dare to break through, enterprises dare to do, the masses dare to pioneer” requirements. In addition, Wei suggested that more places should actively go out and take the initiative, “such as the northeast, now should be said to play the role of ‘group’ the best time.”
“Growth rate decline is temporary, the annual trade import and export will still be healthy and stable development”
Surfing News: The data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in the month of November, the total value of China’s imports and exports of 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, the growth rate of a single month continues to decline, how to view this change?
Wei Jianguo: The reason for the decline in foreign trade growth in a single month, one is the multi-point distribution of domestic epidemic and some local epidemic prevention and control layers, resulting in some areas of export obstruction, the second is the Federal Reserve interest rate hike led to high inflation in some economies, consumer purchasing power was affected to some extent, at the same time, the decline in foreign consumer demand, resulting in a backlog of hoarded inventory, which in turn affects the customer’s subsequent orders, the third is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, after Energy prices rose, freight costs rose, and some factories in Europe shut down, so that since then, there has been a reduction in demand for productive and living consumer goods in China.
However, the decline of foreign trade in a single month is still within a stable range, the decline is temporary and understandable, from an overall perspective, foreign trade is still in a healthy and stable operating range, can not say that the decline in growth rate in a single month to prove that the future of foreign trade is bleak.
Surfing news: the first 11 months of this year, China’s foreign trade has what is worthy of attention performance?
Wei Jianguo: In the first 11 months, China’s total import and export value of 38.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year, of which, exports of 21.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9%, imports of 16.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%, exports or double-digit growth.
Since this year’s foreign trade performance has several important signals worthy of attention. First, general trade imports and exports accounted for more than 60% of the total value of foreign trade, reaching 63.8%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the same period last year, the good performance of general trade shows that China’s domestic cycle as the main, domestic and international double cycle of mutual promotion of the new development pattern is taking shape.
Second, processing trade has gained some growth. During the epidemic, processing trade has been sluggish, or even negative growth, while the first 11 months of processing trade import and export 7.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3%, a small increase in the big significance of processing trade growth is behind the business environment in China has become better, a large number of foreign investors to invest in business, production on more.
Third, China’s combined import and export growth rate of countries along the “Belt and Road” is higher than the overall growth rate of the country’s foreign trade, and its increasingly close trade relations, the first 11 months, China’s combined import and export of countries along the “Belt and Road” 12.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.4%, year-on-year growth rate of 11.8 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of national foreign trade, and, I believe that the growth momentum will continue to increase.
Fourth, mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products to achieve double growth, we were worried that, due to rising raw material prices, rising labor costs, coupled with the surrounding Vietnam, Malaysia will not take away market share and other reasons, labor-intensive products exports will decline, but from the previous November data, exports of labor-intensive products amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products exports Behind the double growth, it shows that we continue to strengthen the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade enterprises, as well as the transformation of the product structure of foreign trade enterprises.
In addition, the first 11 months, ASEAN is still our largest trading partner, here thanks to the implementation of the RCEP, and the next RCEP will continue to power.
So, from the overall perspective of the whole year, I think trade import and export will still be healthy and stable development, exports will still double-digit growth, imports will also grow soon.
“Foreign trade enterprises orders is the rice bowl, the group to the sea is the innovation in the history of foreign trade”
Surfing News: At present, a number of local governments organize enterprises to seize orders, how do you view this round of action?
Wei Jianguo: for foreign trade enterprises, the order is the rice bowl, no orders can not survive. The government organized foreign trade enterprises to go to sea, can be said to be the innovation in the history of foreign trade. I noticed that this innovation is not only in the coastal Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, etc., in the central and western regions, including Hunan, Sichuan, etc. also began, which is a good thing.
In addition to innovation, the sea to grab orders is more important to implement the December 6 meeting of the Central Political Bureau “cadres dare to do, local dare to break through, enterprises dare to do, the masses dare to pioneer” requirements.
Group to grab orders abroad, first, shows that after the 20th National Congress, foreign trade enterprises have a new look, dare to break through to win the world; second, orders are foreign trade enterprises, but followed by the production chain, employment and a full set of domestic market, so grab orders is to grab the market; third, foreign trade enterprises to exhibit abroad, there are many enterprises trouble, the government played a ” Another hand” role, you can see that the government is fast, services in place to help enterprises to solve the difficulties, including chartered aircraft, epidemic prevention and even capital.
From now to next April, May, the world will be held five or six hundred various exhibitions, we must actively participate, not only in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the Yangtze River Delta region to participate, the central and western regions, the northeast region should also actively participate, now is the best time to play the role of “group”.
The three-year epidemic is not only foreign trade, our overall economy with the global exchange, communication, docking is not enough, the global supply chain in the past three years continued to adjust, and this adjustment is in the absence of some Chinese enterprises, now this time to make up the distance, faster into the new global supply chain, industrial chain, we must do a good job of “exchange, communication, docking “, we need to go out, not only to fight for export orders, but also to attract more investment in China.
“Next year’s foreign trade situation is severe, but also a more vigorous period”
Surfing News: what is the forecast for next year’s foreign trade situation?
Wei Jianguo: two conditions, the situation next year is grim, domestic foreign trade enterprises still have to overcome the impact caused by the domestic epidemic, the delayed time to grab back, which is the key, the international aspect, some of the counter-globalization, including trade protectionism, unilateralism, etc., will further impact on China’s foreign trade, is also our greatest difficulty and to overcome.
From the end of this year’s foreign trade enterprises to see the situation, next year is a more vigorous period. To further open up to the outside world at a high level, foreign trade enterprises to carry forward the spirit of dare to do dare to break through, and strive to next year, external demand is not enough, and even foreign demand for a period of time is very difficult, foreign trade to tide over the difficulties, to maintain the current, or even better than this year’s situation, double-digit growth in foreign trade, will be extended under our efforts for a period of time.
Surf News: What are the highlights of next year’s foreign trade worthy of attention?
Wei Jianguo: A big highlight is the Chinese-style modernization we want to implement. China-style modernization emphasizes a high level of openness to the outside world. Next year, there will be a series of policies and measures to encourage a high level of openness to the outside world, promoting China’s business environment, intellectual property protection, especially in the establishment of a market system based on legalization, marketization and internationalization, taking a big step forward, and China’s huge market will attract countless investments like a sucker. After the epidemic, global manufacturing, capital, technology and talents will accelerate the transfer to China, we must be ready, the more prepared provinces, the more opportunities to seize.
Surfing News: What role will stabilizing foreign trade play in stabilizing growth? Next year, stable foreign trade should be from which aspects to make efforts?
Wei Jianguo: In the consumption has not kept up, the effect of investment has not yet appeared, foreign trade will continue to play a big role. Stabilize foreign trade, the main thing is to stabilize the market subjects, stabilize foreign trade policy. First, the implementation of a series of foreign trade policies from this year, involving insurance, credit, customs, including some preferential policies for cross-border e-commerce, to grasp the organization and implementation; second, to establish a vast, open information network group, the global demand for what things, which place has an exhibition, which place needs what customers, what advice on our products, which markets still need to be explored, foreign trade to grasp as soon as possible Third, the establishment of a “flagship” as the main, other “frigate” maintenance of a “fleet” model, that is, large enterprises to take the lead, with small enterprises upstream and downstream Linkage, the formation of a “one-stop” approach to develop new markets.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Post time: Dec-15-2022