[Global Times Comprehensive Report] According to Reuters reported on the 5th, the agency's 32 economists of a survey of the median forecast shows that, in dollar terms, China's exports in May year-on-year growth will reach 6.0%, significantly higher than April's 1.5%; imports grew at a rate of 4.2%, lower than April's 8.5%; trade surplus will be 73 billion U.S. dollars, higher than April's 72.35 billion U.S. dollars.
Reuters analysis said that in May last year, U.S. and European interest rates and inflation are at a high level, thus inhibiting external demand, China's export data performance in May will benefit from the same period last year's low base. In addition, the global cyclical improvement in the electronics industry should also help China's exports.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capitol Macro, said in a report, “So far this year, global demand has recovered beyond expectations, strongly driving China's exports, while some tariff measures targeting China do not have a large impact on China's exports in the short term.”
The resilience and development potential of China's economy has led several international authoritative organizations to raise China's 2024 economic growth expectations in the recent past. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on May 29 raised China's economic growth forecast for 2024 by 0.4 percentage points to 5%, with the adjusted estimate in line with China's official economic growth target of around 5% announced in March.The IMF believes that China's economy will remain resilient as the country's economy achieved super-expectation growth in the first quarter and a series of macro-policies to boost the economy have been introduced. Julian Evans Pritchard was quoted by Reuters as saying that thanks to the performance of exports, he believes China's economic growth will reach 5.5 percent this year.
Bai Ming, a member of the degree committee and researcher at the Academy of the Ministry of Commerce, told the Global Times that the global trade situation has continued to improve this year, which has helped China's export growth, coupled with a series of China's measures to stabilize foreign trade continue to exert force, and it is believed that China's exports will have a relatively optimistic performance in May. Bai Ming believes that the performance of China's exports thanks to the resilience of China's economy, will also be a strong impetus to China to complete the annual economic growth target of about 5%.
Post time: Jun-06-2024